[Why a wise person pays no attention to latest Star/Guardian Poll]
If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
The recently released Star/Guardian poll is about as suspicious a set of numbers as have ever been foisted onto the public.
Let’s review the premise. Someone SAYS they contacted 1,100 folks and determined that the result would be correct (plus or minus 3%) about 99 times out of a hundred. That statement is no more credible than most of the “opinions” served up by the Star as alleged “facts”.
It’s been decades since my last university STATS course, but this is not my first rodeo. Given a population of 600,000 and an alleged sample size of 1,100, we are looking at a sample size that is far too small to make any such projections. Gosh, by using such a sample size, I would not even attempt to predict preference between white and brown bread as a shopping basket choice; little own attempting to make assumptions as to how Brampton voters would vote in just over 2 months.
Legitimate polling is an art form as much as arithmetic exercise. There have been far too many attempts in past to manipulate voters by way of sensational headlines already served up by the Toronto Star to make the latest “polling headline “credible. Serious polls cost BIG money and one suspects that the Star’s main focus remains on stemming its declining readership.
Why they chose Brampton Ontario as a target, escapes me. I have attended numerous public events a it is astounding how popular Brampton’s mayor is at such events. I too have numerous friends and can produce bogus polls until the cows come home.
For many years, voters were polled as to choices for Federal Leader. They were asked which of the party leaders the public’s choice was. Ed Broadbent always finished first in such polls beating the likes of Pierre Trudeau, Joe Clark, Brian Mulroney and John Turner. Stark reality: he (Broadbent) remained in third place after the ballots were counted.
Last Federal election the pollsters’ choice was Thomas Mulcair over the Liberal and Conservative candidate. Mulcair and the NDP’s lost. Last Ontario election, two other polling predictions failed just as miserably. According to the trends, Hudak had the election in the bag AND Andrea Horvath was deemed to be the best of the leaders. Roll the calendar forward and Kathleen Wynne pulled off a majority government despite a Liberal track record of despicable scandals.
Sorry, Star; I am not buying your results and lose more and more respect for the entire TorStar operation each day.